A Portfolio Approach: We should consider formally splitting funding into distinct portfolios. For example, a fund might allocate 70% of its resources to proven, highly measurable interventions, while dedicating 30% to a “high-risk, high-reward” fund for systemic change. This would allow us to continue supporting reliable interventions while also creating space for potentially transformative work.
EAs may only control a small fraction of resources in most cause areas (depending on exactly how one defines the cause area). If the portfolio approach is correct, I submit that the hypothetical fund should care about improving the total allocation of resources between the two approaches, not making its own allocation match what would be ideal for the charitable sector as a whole to do. Unless the charitable sector already has the balance between portfolios in a cause area approximately correct, it seems that a fund whose objective was to improve the overall sector balance between the two approaches would be close to all-in on one or the other.[1]
There are reasons this might not be the case—for instance, you might think other funders were not going a very good job funding either proven, highly measurable interventions or high-risk / high-reward systemic interventions.
EAs may only control a small fraction of resources in most cause areas (depending on exactly how one defines the cause area). If the portfolio approach is correct, I submit that the hypothetical fund should care about improving the total allocation of resources between the two approaches, not making its own allocation match what would be ideal for the charitable sector as a whole to do. Unless the charitable sector already has the balance between portfolios in a cause area approximately correct, it seems that a fund whose objective was to improve the overall sector balance between the two approaches would be close to all-in on one or the other.[1]
There are reasons this might not be the case—for instance, you might think other funders were not going a very good job funding either proven, highly measurable interventions or high-risk / high-reward systemic interventions.