Great post. I think it focuses too much on the use of chemical weapons against enemy soldiers, however. IMO chemical weapons were and almost always have been thought of as terror weapons. For example, before WW2 it was feared that squadrons of bombers would drop chemical weapons all over european cities on Day 1 of the next war. Instead, they dropped propaganda leaflets and focused on military targets, and then gradually escalated to bombing and then firebombing cities.
True, civilian populations can be equipped with anti-chemical-weapon gear. But even so, my guess is that chemical bombs would have been effective terror weapons. Imagine if during the Blitz, instead of 100% conventional weapons, they had gone for a 80 − 20 mix of conventional and gas, many of the gas weapons being timed release so that hours after the air raid was over the gas would start hissing out.
Another piece of evidence is that the Allies shipped huge amounts of chemical weapons to Italy during their invasion, presumably in case they needed them. (They didn’t; in fact a German air raid accidentally set off chemical weapons and caused massive casualties. Quote: “From the start, Allied High Command tried to conceal the disaster, in case the Germans believed that the Allies were preparing to use chemical weapons, which might provoke them into preemptive use, but there were too many witnesses to keep the secret, and in February 1944, the U.S. Chiefs of Staff issued a statement admitting to the accident and emphasizing that the U.S. had no intention of using chemical weapons except in the case of retaliation.”)
As for Stalin: Did the USSR have large chemical weapon stockpiles? Maybe they didn’t. Maybe they figured their poorly equipped troops would fare worse in a chemical weapon fight than the Germans. (The Germans, meanwhile, perhaps thought that if they used chemical weapons against the Russians, the Brits and USA would retaliate against Germany.)
Epistemic status: Just presenting some pushback/counter-evidence. Not sure what to think, ultimately. Probably the truth is a combination of both factors, I’d guess.
I think you make a great point, and it in fact fits with the reasoning here. Although militaries are mobile and stealthy, civilians, even during wartime, remain rooted and obvious. That’s just the nature of things: it’s much easier to make soldiers mobile than it is to make civilians because during a war, not considering the value of human life for its own sake, civilians serve purposes tied to fixed resources like farms and factories. This suggests that chemical weapons should still be appealing in war, but only against civilian targets.
Quick Googling isn’t getting me something like a list of times chemical warfare agents were used, but I expect it would show a trend towards primarily use against civilians after the first world war.
Great post. I think it focuses too much on the use of chemical weapons against enemy soldiers, however. IMO chemical weapons were and almost always have been thought of as terror weapons. For example, before WW2 it was feared that squadrons of bombers would drop chemical weapons all over european cities on Day 1 of the next war. Instead, they dropped propaganda leaflets and focused on military targets, and then gradually escalated to bombing and then firebombing cities.
True, civilian populations can be equipped with anti-chemical-weapon gear. But even so, my guess is that chemical bombs would have been effective terror weapons. Imagine if during the Blitz, instead of 100% conventional weapons, they had gone for a 80 − 20 mix of conventional and gas, many of the gas weapons being timed release so that hours after the air raid was over the gas would start hissing out.
Another piece of evidence is that the Allies shipped huge amounts of chemical weapons to Italy during their invasion, presumably in case they needed them. (They didn’t; in fact a German air raid accidentally set off chemical weapons and caused massive casualties. Quote: “From the start, Allied High Command tried to conceal the disaster, in case the Germans believed that the Allies were preparing to use chemical weapons, which might provoke them into preemptive use, but there were too many witnesses to keep the secret, and in February 1944, the U.S. Chiefs of Staff issued a statement admitting to the accident and emphasizing that the U.S. had no intention of using chemical weapons except in the case of retaliation.”)
As for Stalin: Did the USSR have large chemical weapon stockpiles? Maybe they didn’t. Maybe they figured their poorly equipped troops would fare worse in a chemical weapon fight than the Germans. (The Germans, meanwhile, perhaps thought that if they used chemical weapons against the Russians, the Brits and USA would retaliate against Germany.)
Epistemic status: Just presenting some pushback/counter-evidence. Not sure what to think, ultimately. Probably the truth is a combination of both factors, I’d guess.
I think you make a great point, and it in fact fits with the reasoning here. Although militaries are mobile and stealthy, civilians, even during wartime, remain rooted and obvious. That’s just the nature of things: it’s much easier to make soldiers mobile than it is to make civilians because during a war, not considering the value of human life for its own sake, civilians serve purposes tied to fixed resources like farms and factories. This suggests that chemical weapons should still be appealing in war, but only against civilian targets.
Quick Googling isn’t getting me something like a list of times chemical warfare agents were used, but I expect it would show a trend towards primarily use against civilians after the first world war.