Caroline Ellison literally says this in a blog post:
“If you abstract away the financial details there’s also a question of like, what your utility function is. Is it infinitely good to do double-or-nothing coin flips forever? Well, sort of, because your upside is unbounded and your downside is bounded at your entire net worth. But most people don’t do this, because their utility is more like a function of their log wealth or something and they really don’t want to lose all of their money. (Of course those people are lame and not EAs; this blog endorses double-or-nothing coin flips and high leverage.)”
It looks like the tumblr was actually deleted, unfortunately. I spent quite a bit of time going through it last night because I saw screenshots of it going around.
Caroline Ellison literally says this in a blog post:
“If you abstract away the financial details there’s also a question of like, what your utility function is. Is it infinitely good to do double-or-nothing coin flips forever? Well, sort of, because your upside is unbounded and your downside is bounded at your entire net worth. But most people don’t do this, because their utility is more like a function of their log wealth or something and they really don’t want to lose all of their money. (Of course those people are lame and not EAs; this blog endorses double-or-nothing coin flips and high leverage.)”
So no, I don’t think anyone can deny this.
Link?
https://at.tumblr.com/worldoptimization/slatestarscratchpad-all-right-more-really-stupid/8ob0z57u66zr
EDIT: The tumblr has been taken down.
EDIT #2: Someone archived it: https://web.archive.org/web/20210625103706/https://worldoptimization.tumblr.com/
That link doesn’t work for me. Do you have another one, or has it been taken down?
It looks like the tumblr was actually deleted, unfortunately. I spent quite a bit of time going through it last night because I saw screenshots of it going around.
Hey @Lin BL, someone archived it! I just found this link:
https://web.archive.org/web/20210625103706/https://worldoptimization.tumblr.com/