This is brilliant. I agree with almost all of it[1] - it’s a good articulation of how my own thinking on this has evolved over the last couple of years[2]. My timelines might be shorter, and my p(doom) higher, but it’s good to see an exposition for how one need not have such short timelines or high p(doom) to still draw the same conclusions. I recently donated significant amounts to PauseAI Global and PauseAI US. Your $30k to PauseAI US will get them to 5⁄6 of their current fundraising target—thank you!
This is brilliant. I agree with almost all of it[1] - it’s a good articulation of how my own thinking on this has evolved over the last couple of years[2]. My timelines might be shorter, and my p(doom) higher, but it’s good to see an exposition for how one need not have such short timelines or high p(doom) to still draw the same conclusions. I recently donated significant amounts to PauseAI Global and PauseAI US. Your $30k to PauseAI US will get them to 5⁄6 of their current fundraising target—thank you!
Some points of disagreement, additional information, and emphasis in other comments I made as I read through.
Actually to be fair, it’s more detailed!