I didn’t write down a prior. I think if I had, it would have been less persistence. I think I would have guessed five years was an underestimate. (I think probably many people making that assumption would also have guessed it was an underestimate but were airing on the side of conservatism.)
P.S. I imagine you’re too busy to respond, but I’d be curious to hear if these findings surprised you / what updates you made as a result
I didn’t write down a prior. I think if I had, it would have been less persistence. I think I would have guessed five years was an underestimate. (I think probably many people making that assumption would also have guessed it was an underestimate but were airing on the side of conservatism.)