Thanks so for taking the time to write this up! I’ve been (casually) curious about this topic for a while, and it’s great to have your expert analysis.
My main question is: How tractable are the current solutions to all of this? Are there specific next steps one could take? Organizations that could accept funding or incoming talent? Particular laws or regulations we ought to be advocating for? Those are all tough questions, but it would be helpful to have even a very vague sense of how far a unit of money/time could go towards this cause.
What is clear though is that large magnitude eruptions (mag 7+), with a cumulative probability this century of ~1 in 6, are a demonstrable global catastrophic threat and through food and resource impacts would lead to mass global suffering, as well as acting as a not insignificant existential risk factor to x-risks such as environmental damage, pandemics and nuclear wars.
Not sure how others will respond, but just to offer one data point: this was really surprisingly high to me.
if you know literature that may be connected with some of the themes we cover, then please let us know.
Not quite the same, but as you mention, “the closest analogy is nuclear war scenarios”. They feel similar in that the worst case scenarios seem to be various hard to predict follow-on effects, e.g. there’s a resource shortage, people panic and chaos ensues.
large explosive eruptions have a range of different effects and impacts which in themselves represent clear global catastrophic risks or ‘s-risks’, leading to extensive loss of life.
Minor nit: As I understand the term’s usage, the events you describe would probably not entirely qualify. One org describes “s-risk” as “risks of cosmically significant amounts of suffering”. A few other things I’ve read focuses on really astronomically large (in terms of population or timescale) almost science-fiction-esque scenarios, for example, colonizing the galaxy, producing 10^50 humans, and then torturing them all for a trillion years. But I’m not 100% confident that’s the canonical definition, so your usage might be totally fine.
My main question is: How tractable are the current solutions to all of this? Are there specific next steps one could take? Organizations that could accept funding or incoming talent? Particular laws or regulations we ought to be advocating for? Those are all tough questions, but it would be helpful to have even a very vague sense of how far a unit of money/time could go towards this cause.
Yes we think there are tractable solutions to reduce the impact from these large eruptions, and we’re currently planning these behind the scenes. The reason for this in part is that there has been little done to model & understand consequences of such eruptions, most of the work in the disaster risk focuses on the more frequent volcanic risks. There’s no organisation that’s currently looking at these extreme hazards in a global sense, so work to coordinate and focus the volcano community (in a similar way to the asteroid community some decades back), could be really effective (again something we’re starting to think about). We’ll do some fuller cost-benefit analysis, but very little (if any) funds and time are being put into extreme volcanic risk reduction, yet the financial losses may be substantial (~trillions). Sorry if that’s a bit vague-we’re just starting to think about this.
Not quite the same, but as you mention, “the closest analogy is nuclear war scenarios”. They feel similar in that the worst case scenarios seem to be various hard to predict follow-on effects, e.g. there’s a resource shortage, people panic and chaos ensues.
Thanks for this- we’ll read this post with interest.
Minor nit: As I understand the term’s usage, the events you describe would probably not entirely qualify. One org describes “s-risk” as “risks of cosmically significant amounts of suffering”. A few other things I’ve read focuses on really astronomically large (in terms of population or timescale) almost science-fiction-esque scenarios, for example, colonizing the galaxy, producing 10^50 humans, and then torturing them all for a trillion years. But I’m not 100% confident that’s the canonical definition, so your usage might be totally fine.
I think you’re right here (I was struggling with some of the definitions), so I’ve removed the bit about ‘s-risks’.
Thanks so for taking the time to write this up! I’ve been (casually) curious about this topic for a while, and it’s great to have your expert analysis.
My main question is: How tractable are the current solutions to all of this? Are there specific next steps one could take? Organizations that could accept funding or incoming talent? Particular laws or regulations we ought to be advocating for? Those are all tough questions, but it would be helpful to have even a very vague sense of how far a unit of money/time could go towards this cause.
Not sure how others will respond, but just to offer one data point: this was really surprisingly high to me.
The only thing that jumps to mind is Luisa Rodriguez’s work on famines during a civilizational collapse or nuclear winter: https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/GsjmufaebreiaivF7/what-is-the-likelihood-that-civilizational-collapse-would
Not quite the same, but as you mention, “the closest analogy is nuclear war scenarios”. They feel similar in that the worst case scenarios seem to be various hard to predict follow-on effects, e.g. there’s a resource shortage, people panic and chaos ensues.
Minor nit: As I understand the term’s usage, the events you describe would probably not entirely qualify. One org describes “s-risk” as “risks of cosmically significant amounts of suffering”. A few other things I’ve read focuses on really astronomically large (in terms of population or timescale) almost science-fiction-esque scenarios, for example, colonizing the galaxy, producing 10^50 humans, and then torturing them all for a trillion years. But I’m not 100% confident that’s the canonical definition, so your usage might be totally fine.
Thanks for your input!
Yes we think there are tractable solutions to reduce the impact from these large eruptions, and we’re currently planning these behind the scenes. The reason for this in part is that there has been little done to model & understand consequences of such eruptions, most of the work in the disaster risk focuses on the more frequent volcanic risks. There’s no organisation that’s currently looking at these extreme hazards in a global sense, so work to coordinate and focus the volcano community (in a similar way to the asteroid community some decades back), could be really effective (again something we’re starting to think about). We’ll do some fuller cost-benefit analysis, but very little (if any) funds and time are being put into extreme volcanic risk reduction, yet the financial losses may be substantial (~trillions). Sorry if that’s a bit vague-we’re just starting to think about this.
Thanks for this- we’ll read this post with interest.
I think you’re right here (I was struggling with some of the definitions), so I’ve removed the bit about ‘s-risks’.
Thanks again!
Exciting to hear about your upcoming plans, thanks!