Yes, that sounds right. If we assume that lives saved across years are completely uncorrelated, the probability of us saving the same life consecutively is so small (0.25%*0.25%=0.0006%) that we can effectively assume ‘no overlap’ in lives saved. The uncorrelated scenario isn’t our best guess, but I think it’s a helpful benchmark to think through this problem.
Hi Ben,
Yes, that sounds right. If we assume that lives saved across years are completely uncorrelated, the probability of us saving the same life consecutively is so small (0.25%*0.25%=0.0006%) that we can effectively assume ‘no overlap’ in lives saved. The uncorrelated scenario isn’t our best guess, but I think it’s a helpful benchmark to think through this problem.
Thanks for your kind words!