One extra point I thought of: the analysis calculates the value of LEV based on it eventually spreading to the entire population. But if LEV tech is very expensive and/or restricted/proprietary, then it may only ever be adopted by a small elite. This consideration should reduce the value of research that achieves LEV but has limited adoption. I don’t know enough about population ethics to know how this would be considered, could creating more inequality be considered negative? Or just a small positive for the population overall.
In terms of probability of reaching LEV, I think that it is also worthwhile considering that even if all of the hallmarks of ageing are addressed rapidly and people start living longer, people might not make it out to 1000 year average life spans. My intuitive feel as a biologist is that these hallmarks may just be the first signs of ageing, and that treating them might then allow other hallmarks to arise that tend to lead to deaths at say, 200 or 300 years. We obviously don’t know what these are yet and it might be that they can be more easily addressed than the original hallmarks—or maybe not.
Thanks for the points made, it’s nice to hear from a biologist :)
I think your first point is a possibility, but almost only theoretical. Most medical technology drops in price over time. The possibility that some technology won’t ever drop in price has a place in the analysis, as people may want to correct their measure of impact if they think a situation of such extreme inequality has a non negligible probability of happening. I think, though, that it’s very improbable. Aging is such a burden on a state’s economy that it would make sense very soon to distribute therapies for free. I think this is similar to why basic education gets distributed for free. This may seem very utopian given the current state of healthcare accessibility in the US, but not so much for the rest of the world. I would also be very surprised if such inequality existed and policies against it wouldn’t been made. I think it’s safe to say that the population would be extremely outraged about it, and politicians proposing policies to make treatments accessible for everyone would be voted immediately.
Regarding the second observation: You make a good point. In the analysis this is probably not clear, but I’m also pretty sure that putting all the hallmarks described in “The Hallmarks of Aging” under medical control will not eradicate aging. Even for some parts of the hallmarks there is not complete consensus if they are dangerous in a normal human lifespan. This is mostly fine but it influences the probability. Here how I reason about this: since LEV is about how fast medical technologies and treatments are invented, If “post-hallmarks” therapies get on the market fast enough, then the people who benefitted from the first ones could further increase their lifespan, and so on. At that point I would expect that funding for aging research would have skyrocketed, due to the fact that society will be well aware of what’s happening, and the problems making my analysis necessary will not exist. So I think there’s at least a decent probability that the subsequent therapies will come fast enough. Regarding if the next problems will be more difficult or not: this is difficult to predict, but at least we know that we will probably benefit from better technology, so even if they will be somewhat more difficult we could be able to solve them faster.
Interesting post.
One extra point I thought of: the analysis calculates the value of LEV based on it eventually spreading to the entire population. But if LEV tech is very expensive and/or restricted/proprietary, then it may only ever be adopted by a small elite. This consideration should reduce the value of research that achieves LEV but has limited adoption. I don’t know enough about population ethics to know how this would be considered, could creating more inequality be considered negative? Or just a small positive for the population overall.
In terms of probability of reaching LEV, I think that it is also worthwhile considering that even if all of the hallmarks of ageing are addressed rapidly and people start living longer, people might not make it out to 1000 year average life spans. My intuitive feel as a biologist is that these hallmarks may just be the first signs of ageing, and that treating them might then allow other hallmarks to arise that tend to lead to deaths at say, 200 or 300 years. We obviously don’t know what these are yet and it might be that they can be more easily addressed than the original hallmarks—or maybe not.
Thanks for the points made, it’s nice to hear from a biologist :)
I think your first point is a possibility, but almost only theoretical. Most medical technology drops in price over time. The possibility that some technology won’t ever drop in price has a place in the analysis, as people may want to correct their measure of impact if they think a situation of such extreme inequality has a non negligible probability of happening. I think, though, that it’s very improbable. Aging is such a burden on a state’s economy that it would make sense very soon to distribute therapies for free. I think this is similar to why basic education gets distributed for free. This may seem very utopian given the current state of healthcare accessibility in the US, but not so much for the rest of the world. I would also be very surprised if such inequality existed and policies against it wouldn’t been made. I think it’s safe to say that the population would be extremely outraged about it, and politicians proposing policies to make treatments accessible for everyone would be voted immediately.
Regarding the second observation: You make a good point. In the analysis this is probably not clear, but I’m also pretty sure that putting all the hallmarks described in “The Hallmarks of Aging” under medical control will not eradicate aging. Even for some parts of the hallmarks there is not complete consensus if they are dangerous in a normal human lifespan. This is mostly fine but it influences the probability. Here how I reason about this: since LEV is about how fast medical technologies and treatments are invented, If “post-hallmarks” therapies get on the market fast enough, then the people who benefitted from the first ones could further increase their lifespan, and so on. At that point I would expect that funding for aging research would have skyrocketed, due to the fact that society will be well aware of what’s happening, and the problems making my analysis necessary will not exist. So I think there’s at least a decent probability that the subsequent therapies will come fast enough. Regarding if the next problems will be more difficult or not: this is difficult to predict, but at least we know that we will probably benefit from better technology, so even if they will be somewhat more difficult we could be able to solve them faster.