This is a useful consideration to point out, thanks. I push back a bit below on some specifics, but this effect is definitely one I’d want to include if I do end up carving out time to add a bunch more factors to the model.
I don’t think having skipped the neglectedness considerations you mention is enough to call the specific example you quote misleading though, as it’s very far from the only thing I skipped, and many of the other things point the other way. Some other things that were skipped:
Work after AGI likely isn’t worth 0, especially with e.g. Metaculus definitions.
While in the community building examples you’re talking about, shifting work later doesn’t change the quality of that work, this is not true wrt PhDs (doing a PhD looks more like truncating the most junior n years of work than shifting all years of work n years later).
Work that happens just before AGI can be done with a much better picture of what AGI will look like, which pushes against the neglectedness effect.
Work from research leads may actually increase in effectiveness as the field grows, if the growth is mostly coming from junior people who need direction and/or mentorship, as has historically been the case.
And then there’s something about changing your mind, but it’s unclear to me which direction this shifts things:
it’s easier to drop out of a PhD than it is to drop into one, if e.g. your timelines suddenly shorten.
If your timelines shorten because AGI arrives, though, it’s too late to switch, while big updates towards timelines being longer are things you can act on, pushing towards acting as if timelines are short.
This is a useful consideration to point out, thanks. I push back a bit below on some specifics, but this effect is definitely one I’d want to include if I do end up carving out time to add a bunch more factors to the model.
I don’t think having skipped the neglectedness considerations you mention is enough to call the specific example you quote misleading though, as it’s very far from the only thing I skipped, and many of the other things point the other way. Some other things that were skipped:
Work after AGI likely isn’t worth 0, especially with e.g. Metaculus definitions.
While in the community building examples you’re talking about, shifting work later doesn’t change the quality of that work, this is not true wrt PhDs (doing a PhD looks more like truncating the most junior n years of work than shifting all years of work n years later).
Work that happens just before AGI can be done with a much better picture of what AGI will look like, which pushes against the neglectedness effect.
Work from research leads may actually increase in effectiveness as the field grows, if the growth is mostly coming from junior people who need direction and/or mentorship, as has historically been the case.
And then there’s something about changing your mind, but it’s unclear to me which direction this shifts things:
it’s easier to drop out of a PhD than it is to drop into one, if e.g. your timelines suddenly shorten.
If your timelines shorten because AGI arrives, though, it’s too late to switch, while big updates towards timelines being longer are things you can act on, pushing towards acting as if timelines are short.
Good point there are reasons why work could get more valuable the closer you are – I should have mentioned that.
Also interesting points about option value.