Overwhelmingly clear evidence, most likely in the form of a cooperating witness who can provide documents proving fraud, e.g., records showing Sam saying, “We’re going to have to lie to our customers to cover our losses.”
Concerned about additional harm he could cause, e.g., the mysterious withdrawals from FTX accounts shortly after the collapse.
Of these 3, the last 2 seem most likely to me. Sam probably isn’t a flight risk, given that he has deep connections in the United States.
I don’t think this line of investigation is as worth pursuing as you guys seem to think. It most likely had something to do with his congressional hearing tomorrow, which he intended to give remotely from the Bahamas but now might end up doing it while in custody in the US.
“Not knowing or noticing some random fact which turns out to be important” is a very common mistake and is frequently made by professional forecasters and analysts.
Unless SBF wants to waive his right to process, he has the right to a hearing in the Bahamas prior to being extradited. Seems rather unlikely that would happen in time for him to be in the U.S. tomorrow.
Seems reasonably likely that the congressional hearing triggered the extradition through different means then, such as negotiations falling through and/or petty revenge, especially if he had big plans for it e.g. accusing Binance of wrongdoing and leverage was worth getting (even if the detainment was offshore instead of inside the US). Cancelling the hearing has the risk of looking bad for Congress.
One way or another, it’s clearly worth noting that the extradition happened the day before the date of his congressional hearing.
I read the statement and all it says is that the hearing seems to be cancelled, which is explained both by my hearing-driven model and Jason’s fraud driven model? I was arguing that the timing of the arrest has a causal relationship with the hearing, and therefore it isn’t a good indicator for flight risk. He was arrested literally the day before the hearing.
Congressional hearings are costly to cancel if they are scheduled in advance with this much public attention. I stand by my hypothesis that the arrest happened when it did due to the date of the hearing and the fact that SBF would have had a large public platform, and that made him a liability to a wide variety of influential people.
I think it’s very very fast. A few possibilities:
Concerned he’s a flight risk.
Overwhelmingly clear evidence, most likely in the form of a cooperating witness who can provide documents proving fraud, e.g., records showing Sam saying, “We’re going to have to lie to our customers to cover our losses.”
Concerned about additional harm he could cause, e.g., the mysterious withdrawals from FTX accounts shortly after the collapse.
Of these 3, the last 2 seem most likely to me. Sam probably isn’t a flight risk, given that he has deep connections in the United States.
Anyone whose Guidelines sentence would be de facto life—and could easily be looking at 30+ years—is a potential flight risk in my book.
I don’t think this line of investigation is as worth pursuing as you guys seem to think. It most likely had something to do with his congressional hearing tomorrow, which he intended to give remotely from the Bahamas but now might end up doing it while in custody in the US.
“Not knowing or noticing some random fact which turns out to be important” is a very common mistake and is frequently made by professional forecasters and analysts.
Unless SBF wants to waive his right to process, he has the right to a hearing in the Bahamas prior to being extradited. Seems rather unlikely that would happen in time for him to be in the U.S. tomorrow.
Seems reasonably likely that the congressional hearing triggered the extradition through different means then, such as negotiations falling through and/or petty revenge, especially if he had big plans for it e.g. accusing Binance of wrongdoing and leverage was worth getting (even if the detainment was offshore instead of inside the US). Cancelling the hearing has the risk of looking bad for Congress.
One way or another, it’s clearly worth noting that the extradition happened the day before the date of his congressional hearing.
Rep. Waters’s statement on the arrest strikes me as compelling evidence against explanations in this vicinity.
https://financialservices.house.gov/news/documentsingle.aspx?DocumentID=410026
I’m also inclined to trust the judgment of the attorneys on this thread about matters like this.
I read the statement and all it says is that the hearing seems to be cancelled, which is explained both by my hearing-driven model and Jason’s fraud driven model? I was arguing that the timing of the arrest has a causal relationship with the hearing, and therefore it isn’t a good indicator for flight risk. He was arrested literally the day before the hearing.
Congressional hearings are costly to cancel if they are scheduled in advance with this much public attention. I stand by my hypothesis that the arrest happened when it did due to the date of the hearing and the fact that SBF would have had a large public platform, and that made him a liability to a wide variety of influential people.