Yes I think if you make update A due to a single data point, then you realise you shouldn’t have updated on a single data point, you should undo update A. Like your original reasoning was wrong.
That aside, in the general case I think it can sometimes be justified a lot to update on a single datapoint. E.g. if you think an event was very unlikely, and then that event happens, your new probability estimate for the event will normally go up a lot.
In other cases, if you already have lots of relevant points, then adding a single extra one won’t have much impact.
One extra point is that I think people have focused too much on SBF. The other founders also said they supported EA. So if we’re just counting up people, it’s more than one.
Thank you!
Yes I think if you make update A due to a single data point, then you realise you shouldn’t have updated on a single data point, you should undo update A. Like your original reasoning was wrong.
That aside, in the general case I think it can sometimes be justified a lot to update on a single datapoint. E.g. if you think an event was very unlikely, and then that event happens, your new probability estimate for the event will normally go up a lot.
In other cases, if you already have lots of relevant points, then adding a single extra one won’t have much impact.
One extra point is that I think people have focused too much on SBF. The other founders also said they supported EA. So if we’re just counting up people, it’s more than one.