I would suggest thinking about it this way: Do I need to know what Gary Kasparov’s winning move would be, in order to know that he would beat me at chess? The answer is “no”, he would definitely win, even if I can’t predict exactly how.
As I wrote a couple of years ago, are you able to use your imagination to think of ways that a well-resourced and motivated group of humans could cause human extinction? If so, is there a reason to think that an AI wouldn’t be able to execute the same plan?
I would suggest thinking about it this way: Do I need to know what Gary Kasparov’s winning move would be, in order to know that he would beat me at chess? The answer is “no”, he would definitely win, even if I can’t predict exactly how.
As I wrote a couple of years ago, are you able to use your imagination to think of ways that a well-resourced and motivated group of humans could cause human extinction? If so, is there a reason to think that an AI wouldn’t be able to execute the same plan?