Executive summary: Founders Pledge Climate outlines a framework for evaluating expected impact and making funding decisions given high uncertainty in climate philanthropy. By considering multiple attributes and their interactions, they can make probabilistic statements about relative impact across interventions.
Key points:
Maximizing climate impact involves layered uncertainties across time, geography, and possible futures that cannot be fully resolved.
Despite large absolute uncertainty, shared structure and correlations allow probabilistic judgments of relative cost-effectiveness.
They develop a suite of topic-specific models and an overarching impact framework to represent key attributes.
These tools integrate research and grantmaking to inform funding allocations and highlight priorities for further investigation.
The approach scales across diverse theories of change and many organizations to systematically map the space of opportunities.
Representing interactions and conjunctions of factors enables more reliable comparisons than considering variables in isolation.
This comment was auto-generated by the EA Forum Team. Feel free to point out issues with this summary by replying to the comment, andcontact us if you have feedback.
Executive summary: Founders Pledge Climate outlines a framework for evaluating expected impact and making funding decisions given high uncertainty in climate philanthropy. By considering multiple attributes and their interactions, they can make probabilistic statements about relative impact across interventions.
Key points:
Maximizing climate impact involves layered uncertainties across time, geography, and possible futures that cannot be fully resolved.
Despite large absolute uncertainty, shared structure and correlations allow probabilistic judgments of relative cost-effectiveness.
They develop a suite of topic-specific models and an overarching impact framework to represent key attributes.
These tools integrate research and grantmaking to inform funding allocations and highlight priorities for further investigation.
The approach scales across diverse theories of change and many organizations to systematically map the space of opportunities.
Representing interactions and conjunctions of factors enables more reliable comparisons than considering variables in isolation.
This comment was auto-generated by the EA Forum Team. Feel free to point out issues with this summary by replying to the comment, and contact us if you have feedback.
AI might kill us all but in the meantime there will be some great summaries.