Deceptive alignment is a convergent instrumental subgoal. If an AI is clearly misaligned while its creator still has the ability to pull the plug, the plug will be pulled; ergo, pretending to be aligned is worthwhile ~regardless of terminal goal.
Thus, the prior would seem to be that all sufficiently-smart AI appear aligned, but only X proportion of them are truly aligned where X is the chance of a randomly-selected value system being aligned; the 1-X others are deceptively aligned.
GPT-4 being the smartest AI we have and also appearing aligned is not really evidence against this; it’s plausibly smart enough in the specific domain of “predicting humans” for its apparent alignment to be deceptive.
Deceptive alignment is a convergent instrumental subgoal. If an AI is clearly misaligned while its creator still has the ability to pull the plug, the plug will be pulled; ergo, pretending to be aligned is worthwhile ~regardless of terminal goal.
Thus, the prior would seem to be that all sufficiently-smart AI appear aligned, but only X proportion of them are truly aligned where X is the chance of a randomly-selected value system being aligned; the 1-X others are deceptively aligned.
GPT-4 being the smartest AI we have and also appearing aligned is not really evidence against this; it’s plausibly smart enough in the specific domain of “predicting humans” for its apparent alignment to be deceptive.