Given that potential value spans so many order of magnitude, I think it’s quite hard to make a plausible seeming forecast in which value is not approximately binary.
In theory, it seems possible to have future value span lots of orders of magnitude while not being binary. For example, one could have a lognormal/loguniform distribution with median close to 10^15, and 95th percentile around 10^42. Even if one thinks there is a hard upper bound, there is the possibility of selecting a truncated lognormal/loguniform (I guess not in Metaculus).
Thanks for sharing!
In theory, it seems possible to have future value span lots of orders of magnitude while not being binary. For example, one could have a lognormal/loguniform distribution with median close to 10^15, and 95th percentile around 10^42. Even if one thinks there is a hard upper bound, there is the possibility of selecting a truncated lognormal/loguniform (I guess not in Metaculus).