Does it make more sense to think about all probability distributions that offers a probability of 50% for rain tomorrow? If we say this represents our epistemic state, then we’re saying something like “the probability of rain tomorrow is 50%, and we withhold judgement about rain on any other day”.
It feels more natural, but I’m unclear what this example is trying to prove. It still reads to me like “if we think rain is 50% likely tomorrow then it makes sense to say rain is 50% likely tomorrow” (which I realize is presumably not what is meant, but it’s how it feels).
Does it make more sense to think about all probability distributions that offers a probability of 50% for rain tomorrow? If we say this represents our epistemic state, then we’re saying something like “the probability of rain tomorrow is 50%, and we withhold judgement about rain on any other day”.
It feels more natural, but I’m unclear what this example is trying to prove. It still reads to me like “if we think rain is 50% likely tomorrow then it makes sense to say rain is 50% likely tomorrow” (which I realize is presumably not what is meant, but it’s how it feels).