Good point! I think this is also a matter of risk aversion. How severe is it to get to a state of −500 utils? If you are very risk-averse, it might be better to do nothing. But I cannot make such a blanket statement.
I’d like to emphasize at this point that the DMDU approach is trying to avoid to
test the performance of a set of policies for a set number of scenarios,
decide how likely each scenario is (this is the crux), and
calculate some weighted average for each policy.
Instead, we use DMDU to consider the full range of plausible scenarios to explore and identify particularly vulnerable scenarios. We want to pay special attention to these scenarios and find optimal and robust solutions for them. Like this, we cover tail risks which is quite in line IMO with mitigation efforts of GCRs, x-risks, and s-risks.
Good point! I think this is also a matter of risk aversion. How severe is it to get to a state of −500 utils? If you are very risk-averse, it might be better to do nothing. But I cannot make such a blanket statement.
I’d like to emphasize at this point that the DMDU approach is trying to avoid to
test the performance of a set of policies for a set number of scenarios,
decide how likely each scenario is (this is the crux), and
calculate some weighted average for each policy.
Instead, we use DMDU to consider the full range of plausible scenarios to explore and identify particularly vulnerable scenarios. We want to pay special attention to these scenarios and find optimal and robust solutions for them. Like this, we cover tail risks which is quite in line IMO with mitigation efforts of GCRs, x-risks, and s-risks.