I don’t know of any recent AI expert surveys for transformative AI timelines specifically, but have pointed you to very recent ones of human-level machine intelligence and AGI.
For comprehensiveness, I think you should cover both transformative AI (AI that precipitates a change of equal or greater magnitude to the agricultural or industrial revolution) and HLMI. I have yet to read Holden’s AI Timelines post, but believe it’s likely a good resource to defer to, given Holden’s epistemic track record, so I think you should use this for the transformative AI timelines. For the HLMI timelines, I think you should use the 2022 expert survey (the first link). Additionally, if you trust that a techno.-optimist leaning crowd’s forecasting accuracy generalizes to AI timelines, then it might be worth checking out Metaculus as well.
Lastly, I think it might be useful to ask under the existential risk section what percentage of ML/AI researchers think AI safety research should be prioritized (from the survey: “The median respondent believes society should prioritize AI safety research “more” than it is currently prioritized. Respondents chose from “much less,” “less,” “about the same,” “more,” and “much more.” 69% of respondents chose “more” or “much more,” up from 49% in 2016.”)
Thanks for the links, Rodeo. I appreciate your effort to answer my questions. :)
I can add the number of concerned AI researchers in an answer explanation—thanks for that!
I have a limited amount of questions I can fit into the quiz, so I would have to sacrifice other questions to include the one on HLMI vs. transformative AI. Also, it seems that Holden’s transformative AI timeline is the same as the 2022 expert survey on HLMI (2060). So I think one timeline question should do the trick.
I’m considering just writing “Artificial General Intelligence,” which is similar to HLMI, because it’s the most easily recognizable term for a large audience.
Keeping by Holden’s timeline sounds good, and I agree that AGI > HLMI in terms of recognizability. I hope the quiz goes well once it is officially released!
I am not the best person to ask this question (@so8res, @katja_grace, @holdenkarnofsky) but I will try to offer some points.
These links should be quite useful:
2022 Expert Survey on Progress in AI
What do ML researchers think about AI in 2022? (37 years until a 50% chance of HLMI)
LW Wiki—AI Timelines (e.g., roughly 15% chance of transformative AI by 2036 and ~75% of AGI by 2032)
(somewhat less useful) LW Wiki—Transformative AI; LW Wiki—Technological forecasting
I don’t know of any recent AI expert surveys for transformative AI timelines specifically, but have pointed you to very recent ones of human-level machine intelligence and AGI.
For comprehensiveness, I think you should cover both transformative AI (AI that precipitates a change of equal or greater magnitude to the agricultural or industrial revolution) and HLMI. I have yet to read Holden’s AI Timelines post, but believe it’s likely a good resource to defer to, given Holden’s epistemic track record, so I think you should use this for the transformative AI timelines. For the HLMI timelines, I think you should use the 2022 expert survey (the first link). Additionally, if you trust that a techno.-optimist leaning crowd’s forecasting accuracy generalizes to AI timelines, then it might be worth checking out Metaculus as well.
the community here has an IQR forecast of (2030, 2041, 2075) for When will the first general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?
the uniform median forecast is 54% for Will there be human/machine intelligence parity by 2040?
Lastly, I think it might be useful to ask under the existential risk section what percentage of ML/AI researchers think AI safety research should be prioritized (from the survey: “The median respondent believes society should prioritize AI safety research “more” than it is currently prioritized. Respondents chose from “much less,” “less,” “about the same,” “more,” and “much more.” 69% of respondents chose “more” or “much more,” up from 49% in 2016.”)
Thanks for the links, Rodeo. I appreciate your effort to answer my questions. :)
I can add the number of concerned AI researchers in an answer explanation—thanks for that!
I have a limited amount of questions I can fit into the quiz, so I would have to sacrifice other questions to include the one on HLMI vs. transformative AI. Also, it seems that Holden’s transformative AI timeline is the same as the 2022 expert survey on HLMI (2060). So I think one timeline question should do the trick.
I’m considering just writing “Artificial General Intelligence,” which is similar to HLMI, because it’s the most easily recognizable term for a large audience.
Glad to hear that the links were useful!
Keeping by Holden’s timeline sounds good, and I agree that AGI > HLMI in terms of recognizability. I hope the quiz goes well once it is officially released!