The first group of people are wrong because the probability that you personally avert AI catastrophe isn’t that small.
What do you estimate it to be, given all of the other actors in the space focused on this binary outcome?
Also, how high should the probability difference be for you to think devoting your career to it makes sense, rather than taking minimal precautions with low opportunity costs, like how we think about seatbelts and insurance against very unlikely events?
What do you estimate it to be, given all of the other actors in the space focused on this binary outcome?
Also, how high should the probability difference be for you to think devoting your career to it makes sense, rather than taking minimal precautions with low opportunity costs, like how we think about seatbelts and insurance against very unlikely events?