“They genuinely weren’t surprised by anything that happened. They didn’t necessarily predict everything perfectly, but everything that happened matched their model well enough. Their deep insight into ML progress enables them to clearly explain why AGI isn’t coming soon, and they can provide rough predictions about the shape of progress over the coming years.”
Would definitely like to hear from people like this and see them make lots of predictions about AI progress in the short term (months and years).
Seems like a very promising profile for identifying those with a valuable counter perspective/feedback for improving ideas.
“They genuinely weren’t surprised by anything that happened. They didn’t necessarily predict everything perfectly, but everything that happened matched their model well enough. Their deep insight into ML progress enables them to clearly explain why AGI isn’t coming soon, and they can provide rough predictions about the shape of progress over the coming years.”
Would definitely like to hear from people like this and see them make lots of predictions about AI progress in the short term (months and years).
Seems like a very promising profile for identifying those with a valuable counter perspective/feedback for improving ideas.