You probably agree with me that (a) we can’t know whether it will rain on 2/10/2050 and (b) we can be pretty sure that there will be a solar eclipse on 7/22/2028. You are actively participating in a prediction market, so you seem to believe in some ability to forecast the future better than a magic 8 ball.
Where do you think the limits are to what kinds of things we can make useful predictions about, and how confident those predictions can be?
Yeah I guess the limits come down to the actions of others. I can’t see any human effecting the eclipse but I can see humans negating or misdirecting any actions I take toward the future. And the more humans there are, the more likely that becomes. Like, the more people there are the more likely any little trickle of a river you try to send into the future via society.. gets stepped on blocked or muddied somehow
You probably agree with me that (a) we can’t know whether it will rain on 2/10/2050 and (b) we can be pretty sure that there will be a solar eclipse on 7/22/2028. You are actively participating in a prediction market, so you seem to believe in some ability to forecast the future better than a magic 8 ball.
Where do you think the limits are to what kinds of things we can make useful predictions about, and how confident those predictions can be?
Yeah I guess the limits come down to the actions of others. I can’t see any human effecting the eclipse but I can see humans negating or misdirecting any actions I take toward the future. And the more humans there are, the more likely that becomes. Like, the more people there are the more likely any little trickle of a river you try to send into the future via society.. gets stepped on blocked or muddied somehow