Thanks for the good exchange—that all makes sense.
I am unsure whether we disagree on learning rates for SMRs, we are just in the process of building a comparative tool to clarify our expectations of the returns of different innovation advocacy bets and, IIRC, SMRs sit in the middle range there based on stuff like Mahotra and Schmidt (2020?, from memory) on design complexity and customization and how this shapes expectable learning rates.
We’ll publish this later in the fall and then we’ll see whether we disagree:).
Your detailed work is likely to make me update so let’s see. And you probably do this already but it seems intuitively worth looking at learning rates per unit produced, and not only MW. Solar panels might be 2000 units per MW, wind turbines 0.2 and SMRs 0.003 units per MW. Just feels like solar panels have a massive advantage here in terms of learning.
Hi Ulrik,
Thanks for the good exchange—that all makes sense.
I am unsure whether we disagree on learning rates for SMRs, we are just in the process of building a comparative tool to clarify our expectations of the returns of different innovation advocacy bets and, IIRC, SMRs sit in the middle range there based on stuff like Mahotra and Schmidt (2020?, from memory) on design complexity and customization and how this shapes expectable learning rates.
We’ll publish this later in the fall and then we’ll see whether we disagree:).
Your detailed work is likely to make me update so let’s see. And you probably do this already but it seems intuitively worth looking at learning rates per unit produced, and not only MW. Solar panels might be 2000 units per MW, wind turbines 0.2 and SMRs 0.003 units per MW. Just feels like solar panels have a massive advantage here in terms of learning.