I like the argumentation for possibility & importance. My only nit-pick would be how bad would a realistic bad case scenario actually look like. Hungary seems like a good model—you could get some anti-liberal legislation, more gerrymandering, maybe some politicized audits of media and universities—however, the government is still selected based on the number of votes (Freedom House) and it’s not a stereotypical “fall of democracy” accompanied by a collapse of economy that would destroy most EA efforts.
I occasionally ruminate two projects in this area (for 2028):
1) Funding a mock-election with ranked-choice voting. (Now I see wes R proposes something similar). To legitimize it, it would have to
a) have robust identity checks
b) have a large demographically representative sample
c) be accompanied by a campaign informing people that a consensus candidate X would win if enough people were honest in surveys, cross-voted, cross-registered or switched to a new party.
2) Policies / financial incentives to make the army more representative of the US population.
I like the argumentation for possibility & importance. My only nit-pick would be how bad would a realistic bad case scenario actually look like. Hungary seems like a good model—you could get some anti-liberal legislation, more gerrymandering, maybe some politicized audits of media and universities—however, the government is still selected based on the number of votes (Freedom House) and it’s not a stereotypical “fall of democracy” accompanied by a collapse of economy that would destroy most EA efforts.
I occasionally ruminate two projects in this area (for 2028):
1) Funding a mock-election with ranked-choice voting. (Now I see wes R proposes something similar). To legitimize it, it would have to
a) have robust identity checks
b) have a large demographically representative sample
c) be accompanied by a campaign informing people that a consensus candidate X would win if enough people were honest in surveys, cross-voted, cross-registered or switched to a new party.
2) Policies / financial incentives to make the army more representative of the US population.