SiebeRozendal comments on Destabilization of the United States: The top X-factor EA neglects?

[SiebeRozendal]

Looking at forecasts, here’s a few. I recommend focusing on the resolution criteria and not the title, as they can diverge quite a lot.

Metaculus, Civil War before 2031: 4% (n=714)

Resolution criteria:

This question will resolve as Yes if all of the following conditions are met before January 1, 2031:

• The Insurrection Act is invoked.

• While the Insurrection Act is invoked, there are at least 500 deaths in a 6 month period as a result of armed conflicts between US residents and a branch of the US military, national guard, or in conflicts between/​among such branches.

• All of these deaths occur in any US state(s) (including DC).

Manifold, Civil War before 2030, 15% (n=114)

Resolution criteria

any large scale military action taken by some part of the country against come other part of the country. This could be military vs. civilian, military vs. military, or civilian vs. civilian. Actual violence must be involved, not just threats. “Large scale” means that it takes place in more than one city and each side has the support of a significant fraction of the country. It must be an attempt to conquer territory or people, not just riots

Manifold, Civil War, Violent Revolution, or Insurgency in USA before 2031?, 21% (n=31)

Resolution criteria:

This will resolve in “yes” if the US army is mobilized to deal with domestic terrorism or part of government. Resolves in “no” otherwise.

I also made 2 questions with highly specific resolution criteria for “intermediate’ violent events. I’m not showing the probabilities because there’s still only a few forecasters for those (so I encourage you to join in to improve precision!).

Manifold: Will there be armed conflict between left- and right-wing extremists before 2030? (10v10 & 100v100)

Manifold: Will the US see a violent insurgency before 2030? (This is civilians against the state)