Jaime gave a great thorough explanation. My catch-phrase version: This is not a holistic Bayesian prediction. The confidence intervals come from bootstrapping (re-sampling) a fixed dataset, not summing over all possible future trajectories for reality.
Jaime gave a great thorough explanation. My catch-phrase version: This is not a holistic Bayesian prediction. The confidence intervals come from bootstrapping (re-sampling) a fixed dataset, not summing over all possible future trajectories for reality.