A small aside: some put forth interplanetary civilisation as a partial defence against either of total destruction and ‘setback’. But reaching the milestone of having a really robustly interplanetary civ might itself take quite a long time after AGI—especially if (like me) you think digital uploading is nontrivial.
(This abstractly echoes the suggestion in this piece that bio defence might take a long time, which I agree with.)
I agree with this. One way of seeing that is how many doublings of energy consumption civilisation can have before it needs to move beyond the solar system? The answer to that is about 40 doublings. Which, depending on your views on just how fast explosive industrial expansion goes, could be a pretty long time, e.g. decades.
A small aside: some put forth interplanetary civilisation as a partial defence against either of total destruction and ‘setback’. But reaching the milestone of having a really robustly interplanetary civ might itself take quite a long time after AGI—especially if (like me) you think digital uploading is nontrivial.
(This abstractly echoes the suggestion in this piece that bio defence might take a long time, which I agree with.)
I agree with this. One way of seeing that is how many doublings of energy consumption civilisation can have before it needs to move beyond the solar system? The answer to that is about 40 doublings. Which, depending on your views on just how fast explosive industrial expansion goes, could be a pretty long time, e.g. decades.