Yep, definitely for me ‘big civ setbacks are really bad’ was already baked in from the POV of setting bad context for pre-AGI-transition(s) (as well as their direct badness). But while I’d already agreed with Will about post-AGI not being an ‘end of history’ (in the sense that much remains uncertain re safety), I hadn’t thought through the implication that setbacks could force a rerun of the most perilous transition(s), which does add some extra concern.
Yep, definitely for me ‘big civ setbacks are really bad’ was already baked in from the POV of setting bad context for pre-AGI-transition(s) (as well as their direct badness). But while I’d already agreed with Will about post-AGI not being an ‘end of history’ (in the sense that much remains uncertain re safety), I hadn’t thought through the implication that setbacks could force a rerun of the most perilous transition(s), which does add some extra concern.