I like your point 2 about chancy vs merely uncertain. I guess a related point is that when the ‘runs’ of the risks are in some way correlated, having survived once is evidence that survivability is higher. (Up to an including the fully correlated ‘merely uncertain’ extreme?)
I like your point 2 about chancy vs merely uncertain. I guess a related point is that when the ‘runs’ of the risks are in some way correlated, having survived once is evidence that survivability is higher. (Up to an including the fully correlated ‘merely uncertain’ extreme?)