Vasco Grilo comments on Prior probability of this being the most important century

[Vasco Grilo]

Hi Nathan,

The prior is supposed to account for extinction risk.

However, a priori, one should arguably expect such risk to also be proportional to the expected value of effective computation this century as a fraction of that throughout all time [?]. Along the same lines, I wonder whether the vast majority of technological progress will happen in the longterm future.