I’d like to compile the inner-monologue responses people use to correct their own over- and under-confidence, both in forecasting and in judging one’s own abilities, job prospects, etc.
Accuracy and balance are always ideal, but I’m interested in how people to respond to thoughts that casually prop up, which are suspicious of over- or under-confidence. Examples might be...
Responses to underconfident thoughts:
“Sure, there’s only a 10% chance of getting that job, but it’s not a lottery. They’ll pick the best person for the job.”
“Sure, there’s only a 10% chance for me, but the odds are just as low for everybody else, so that’s no reason not to at least go for it.”
“I’m still pretty uncertain about X future event, but I’ve spent a good amount of time thinking deliberately about it. No such thing as perfect certainty.”
Responses to overconfident thoughts:
“What are the odds everybody else going for that job also thinks they’re a shoe-in?”
“Even a 3% chance of something really bad is worth a lot of attention. Don’t bet the farm.”
“Remember Thomas Edison and his lightbulb? You’d do well to expect a few more failures yet.”
These aren’t for those situations that call for intellectual rigor, just casual course-corrections. Even still, critiques are welcome. If there’s already something out there that compiles correctional one-liners like this, I’d love to see it. Or, if you’re interested in seeing a larger post on this, let me know of that too!
I’d like to compile the inner-monologue responses people use to correct their own over- and under-confidence, both in forecasting and in judging one’s own abilities, job prospects, etc.
Accuracy and balance are always ideal, but I’m interested in how people to respond to thoughts that casually prop up, which are suspicious of over- or under-confidence. Examples might be...
Responses to underconfident thoughts:
“Sure, there’s only a 10% chance of getting that job, but it’s not a lottery. They’ll pick the best person for the job.”
“Sure, there’s only a 10% chance for me, but the odds are just as low for everybody else, so that’s no reason not to at least go for it.”
“I’m still pretty uncertain about X future event, but I’ve spent a good amount of time thinking deliberately about it. No such thing as perfect certainty.”
Responses to overconfident thoughts:
“What are the odds everybody else going for that job also thinks they’re a shoe-in?”
“Even a 3% chance of something really bad is worth a lot of attention. Don’t bet the farm.”
“Remember Thomas Edison and his lightbulb? You’d do well to expect a few more failures yet.”
These aren’t for those situations that call for intellectual rigor, just casual course-corrections. Even still, critiques are welcome. If there’s already something out there that compiles correctional one-liners like this, I’d love to see it. Or, if you’re interested in seeing a larger post on this, let me know of that too!