Thanks for reading our work and engaging, Ulrik! I think your concern is fair and well spotted, we do feel the highest uncertainty in our estimates of likelihood of success.
Concerning part 1, as far as I know the CE incubation success rate is 80%, which considering our wide interval range is relatively close to 100%. I do agree that it seems to be an additional factor worth including, depending on whether we look at starting a new organisation or supporting an existing one with a good track record.
Concerning part 2, we updated on these numbers several times during the research process. One major source of optimism were our interviews with experts, whose experience suggested ~50% rate of success. We tried to look at past corporate campaigns, but a problem with using the existing data on other corporate campaigns is that the situation for silkworms as insects might be too different than when it comes to cage-free and broiler campaigns. The public concern, place of production and scale of the problem vary too strongly. There is also a long history of fashion corporate campaigns, but it is hard to find the numbers to estimate their average success rate. In our next steps section we highlight the need for a better understanding of the fashion industry and the retailer distribution and the benefits of consulting experts on the topic of fashion campaigns. We would expect this to significantly update our likelihood of success.
To sum it up, I mostly agree with your concerns. With our report we got to a point where we did not have the capacity to resolve these uncertainties in the time given, but know the next steps we would take to get to a more accurate CEA.
Thanks for reading our work and engaging, Ulrik!
I think your concern is fair and well spotted, we do feel the highest uncertainty in our estimates of likelihood of success.
Concerning part 1, as far as I know the CE incubation success rate is 80%, which considering our wide interval range is relatively close to 100%. I do agree that it seems to be an additional factor worth including, depending on whether we look at starting a new organisation or supporting an existing one with a good track record.
Concerning part 2, we updated on these numbers several times during the research process. One major source of optimism were our interviews with experts, whose experience suggested ~50% rate of success. We tried to look at past corporate campaigns, but a problem with using the existing data on other corporate campaigns is that the situation for silkworms as insects might be too different than when it comes to cage-free and broiler campaigns. The public concern, place of production and scale of the problem vary too strongly. There is also a long history of fashion corporate campaigns, but it is hard to find the numbers to estimate their average success rate. In our next steps section we highlight the need for a better understanding of the fashion industry and the retailer distribution and the benefits of consulting experts on the topic of fashion campaigns. We would expect this to significantly update our likelihood of success.
To sum it up, I mostly agree with your concerns. With our report we got to a point where we did not have the capacity to resolve these uncertainties in the time given, but know the next steps we would take to get to a more accurate CEA.