This led me to think about the fact that the description of resilience is itself an estimate/prediction. I wonder how related the skills of giving first-order estimates/predictions and second-order resilience estimates are. In other words, if someone is well-calibrated, can we expect their resilience estimates to also be well-calibrated? Or is an extra skill that would take some learning.
This led me to think about the fact that the description of resilience is itself an estimate/prediction. I wonder how related the skills of giving first-order estimates/predictions and second-order resilience estimates are. In other words, if someone is well-calibrated, can we expect their resilience estimates to also be well-calibrated? Or is an extra skill that would take some learning.