Executive summary: This exploratory literature review argues that climate change, nuclear winter, and stratospheric aerosol injection all affect Earth’s “global thermostat,” and that their potential interactions could be catastrophic, underscoring the urgent need for emissions reduction and more holistic system-level research.
Key points:
Climate change destabilizes Earth’s self-regulating carbon cycle, pushing the system out of equilibrium and amplifying warming over decades to centuries.
Nuclear war could trigger a “nuclear winter,” with soot-driven global cooling lasting about a decade and severely disrupting food systems, though uncertainties remain about city burnability and soot lofting.
Stratospheric aerosol injection (SAI) could partially offset warming but entails termination shock risks, unpredictable weather shifts, equity issues, and dependence on long-term international coordination.
Interactions magnify risks:
SAI + nuclear winter could produce extreme cooling or sudden termination shocks.
Climate change increases nuclear war risks via conflict, migration, and military shifts.
SAI could delay emissions cuts while exacerbating geopolitical tensions.
A “triple scenario” (ongoing emissions + SAI collapse + nuclear war) could cause alternating extreme cold and rapid warming, with potentially existential consequences.
The safest path is aggressive emissions reduction, which lowers the need for SAI, reduces conflict risks, and avoids cascading hazard interactions; more integrated research on system-wide interactions is essential.
This comment was auto-generated by the EA Forum Team. Feel free to point out issues with this summary by replying to the comment, and contact us if you have feedback.
Executive summary: This exploratory literature review argues that climate change, nuclear winter, and stratospheric aerosol injection all affect Earth’s “global thermostat,” and that their potential interactions could be catastrophic, underscoring the urgent need for emissions reduction and more holistic system-level research.
Key points:
Climate change destabilizes Earth’s self-regulating carbon cycle, pushing the system out of equilibrium and amplifying warming over decades to centuries.
Nuclear war could trigger a “nuclear winter,” with soot-driven global cooling lasting about a decade and severely disrupting food systems, though uncertainties remain about city burnability and soot lofting.
Stratospheric aerosol injection (SAI) could partially offset warming but entails termination shock risks, unpredictable weather shifts, equity issues, and dependence on long-term international coordination.
Interactions magnify risks:
SAI + nuclear winter could produce extreme cooling or sudden termination shocks.
Climate change increases nuclear war risks via conflict, migration, and military shifts.
SAI could delay emissions cuts while exacerbating geopolitical tensions.
A “triple scenario” (ongoing emissions + SAI collapse + nuclear war) could cause alternating extreme cold and rapid warming, with potentially existential consequences.
The safest path is aggressive emissions reduction, which lowers the need for SAI, reduces conflict risks, and avoids cascading hazard interactions; more integrated research on system-wide interactions is essential.
This comment was auto-generated by the EA Forum Team. Feel free to point out issues with this summary by replying to the comment, and contact us if you have feedback.