Oh, you entirely missed my purpose: I was sharing this with your community, as a courtesy. I publish on different newsletters online, and I wrote for that audience ABOUT your community. And, the fact that you’re not interested in learning about Dirichlet, when it’s industry-standard (demonstrating its superiority empirically, not with anecdotes you find palatable). So, no, I don’t plan to present myself in a way you approve of, as a pre-requisite to you noticing that Bayes is out-dated by 260 years of improvements. Dirichlet, logically, would NOT have been published and adopted in 1973 and since, if it were in fact inferior to Bayes.
You evidence the same spurious assumptions and lack of attention to core facts—Dirichlet is an improvement, obviously, by coming along later and being adopted generally. I also addressed the key information which Dirichlet provides, which Bayes’ Theorem is incapable of generating: a Likelihood Distribution across possible Populations, and the resultant Confidence Interval, as well as weighting your estimate to Minimize the Cost of being Wrong. Those are all key, valuable information that Bayes’ Theorem will not give you on its own. When Scott Alexander claims “Bayes’ Theorem; all else is commentary” he leaves-out critical, incomparable improvements in our understanding.
Oh, you entirely missed my purpose: I was sharing this with your community, as a courtesy. I publish on different newsletters online, and I wrote for that audience ABOUT your community. And, the fact that you’re not interested in learning about Dirichlet, when it’s industry-standard (demonstrating its superiority empirically, not with anecdotes you find palatable). So, no, I don’t plan to present myself in a way you approve of, as a pre-requisite to you noticing that Bayes is out-dated by 260 years of improvements. Dirichlet, logically, would NOT have been published and adopted in 1973 and since, if it were in fact inferior to Bayes.
You evidence the same spurious assumptions and lack of attention to core facts—Dirichlet is an improvement, obviously, by coming along later and being adopted generally. I also addressed the key information which Dirichlet provides, which Bayes’ Theorem is incapable of generating: a Likelihood Distribution across possible Populations, and the resultant Confidence Interval, as well as weighting your estimate to Minimize the Cost of being Wrong. Those are all key, valuable information that Bayes’ Theorem will not give you on its own. When Scott Alexander claims “Bayes’ Theorem; all else is commentary” he leaves-out critical, incomparable improvements in our understanding.