I would strongly recommend taking a look at Peter Zeihan’s work- he forecasted, among other things, the invasion of Ukraine back in 2015 based on an array of geographic and demographic factors, and expects many similar calamities in the coming years. (TLDR- Russia’s top-heaving ageing demography and insecure geostrategic perimeter is prompting it to expand to reach geographical choke points like the Besarabian Gap before it runs out of young men to draft.)
There’s an interview on the topic here that you might take a look at. Of particular interest and concern are his predictions of widespread famine due to disruptions of fertiliser inputs needed for agriculture in many parts of the world (due to natural gas and energy prices spiking, disruption of potash exports from Russia and Belarus, and phosphate exports from China recently being banned.) That’s effectively an existential risk to civilisation as we would recognise it with or without nuclear weapons being involved.
I would strongly recommend taking a look at Peter Zeihan’s work- he forecasted, among other things, the invasion of Ukraine back in 2015 based on an array of geographic and demographic factors, and expects many similar calamities in the coming years. (TLDR- Russia’s top-heaving ageing demography and insecure geostrategic perimeter is prompting it to expand to reach geographical choke points like the Besarabian Gap before it runs out of young men to draft.)
There’s an interview on the topic here that you might take a look at. Of particular interest and concern are his predictions of widespread famine due to disruptions of fertiliser inputs needed for agriculture in many parts of the world (due to natural gas and energy prices spiking, disruption of potash exports from Russia and Belarus, and phosphate exports from China recently being banned.) That’s effectively an existential risk to civilisation as we would recognise it with or without nuclear weapons being involved.