I’m just reading the relevant section in Will’s book, and noticed the footnote ‘there is some evidence suggesting that future power transitions may pose a lower risk of war, not an elevated one, and some researchers believe that it is equality of capabilities, not the transition process that leads to equality, that raises the risk of war.’
If this is true, and if we believe China is overtaking the US, this implies that accelerating the transition eg by encouraging policies specifically to boost China’s growth rate would reduce the risk of conflict (since the period of equality would be shorter).
I’m just reading the relevant section in Will’s book, and noticed the footnote ‘there is some evidence suggesting that future power transitions may pose a lower risk of war, not an elevated one, and some researchers believe that it is equality of capabilities, not the transition process that leads to equality, that raises the risk of war.’
If this is true, and if we believe China is overtaking the US, this implies that accelerating the transition eg by encouraging policies specifically to boost China’s growth rate would reduce the risk of conflict (since the period of equality would be shorter).