[C]ross-national evidence shows that the four-fold transformation of national
development, to higher productivity economies, to more responsive states, the more capable organizations and administration and to more equal social treatment produces gains in poverty and human well-being that are orders of magnitude bigger than the best that can be hoped from better programs. Arguments that RCT research is a good (much less “best”) investment depend on both believing in an implausibly low likelihood that non-RCT research can improve progress national development and believing in an implausibly large likelihood that RCT evidence improves outcomes.
Basically, he’s arguing for the cost-effectiveness of macro interventions over micro interventions.
Hello Cole! This argument also advocates for the support of institutions in developing nations, perhaps as a part of systems thinking(?) Additionally, it is plausible that non-RCT methods may increase development outcomes more effectively than RCT methods. However, perhaps RCT-based programs benefit from the credibility that solicits added investment.
Additionally, RCT research is highly localized—e.g. what may work in a region of Kenya (where an RCT is run) may not work in another region of Kenya. Thus, divesting RCT-based donations may bring net benefits. Should any non-RCT-founded approaches be supported, if one is convinced (based on their expertise) that these are more effective than RCT-based programs?
Lant Pritchett (influential development economist) makes a related argument in Randomizing Development: Method or Madness?:
Basically, he’s arguing for the cost-effectiveness of macro interventions over micro interventions.
Hello Cole! This argument also advocates for the support of institutions in developing nations, perhaps as a part of systems thinking(?) Additionally, it is plausible that non-RCT methods may increase development outcomes more effectively than RCT methods. However, perhaps RCT-based programs benefit from the credibility that solicits added investment.
Additionally, RCT research is highly localized—e.g. what may work in a region of Kenya (where an RCT is run) may not work in another region of Kenya. Thus, divesting RCT-based donations may bring net benefits. Should any non-RCT-founded approaches be supported, if one is convinced (based on their expertise) that these are more effective than RCT-based programs?