there is no reason for the great powers to ever deploy or develop planet-killing kinetic bombardment capabilities
This seems true to a first approximation, but if the risk we are preventing is tiny, then a tiny chance of dual-use becomes a big deal. The behavior of states suggests that we can’t put less than a 1 in 10,000 chance on something like this. Some random examples:
During WW2, there were powerful elements within the Japanese government that advocated total annihilation rather than surrender (Wikipedia).
Deterrence can benefit from credible signals of suicidal craziness (e.g. the ‘Samson Option’ named after biblical character who destroyed a temple, killing himself and taking everybody with him).
The Soviet bioweapons program invested heavily in contagious weapons (e.g. smallpox) and modifying them to overcome medical countermeasures. This work seemed to be driven by weird bureaucratic incentives that were pretty divorced from rational strategic goals/objectives of the Soviet Union.
Excited to see this kind of analysis!
Worried that this is premature:
This seems true to a first approximation, but if the risk we are preventing is tiny, then a tiny chance of dual-use becomes a big deal. The behavior of states suggests that we can’t put less than a 1 in 10,000 chance on something like this. Some random examples:
During WW2, there were powerful elements within the Japanese government that advocated total annihilation rather than surrender (Wikipedia).
Deterrence can benefit from credible signals of suicidal craziness (e.g. the ‘Samson Option’ named after biblical character who destroyed a temple, killing himself and taking everybody with him).
The Soviet bioweapons program invested heavily in contagious weapons (e.g. smallpox) and modifying them to overcome medical countermeasures. This work seemed to be driven by weird bureaucratic incentives that were pretty divorced from rational strategic goals/objectives of the Soviet Union.