I’m curious about whether other people who would consider themselves particularly well-informed on AI (or an “AI expert”) found these results surprising. I only skimmed the post, but I asked Claude to generate some questions based on the post for me to predict answers to, and I got a Brier score of 0.073, so I did pretty well (or at least don’t feel worried about being wildly out of touch). I’d guess that most people I work with would also do pretty well.
I’m curious about whether other people who would consider themselves particularly well-informed on AI (or an “AI expert”) found these results surprising. I only skimmed the post, but I asked Claude to generate some questions based on the post for me to predict answers to, and I got a Brier score of 0.073, so I did pretty well (or at least don’t feel worried about being wildly out of touch). I’d guess that most people I work with would also do pretty well.
I didn’t check the answers, but Claude does pretty well at this kind of thing.
to be clear, these were extremely “gut” level predictions—spent about 10x more time writing this comment than I did on the whole exercise.
What % of the general public thinks AI will have a positive impact on jobs?
What % of the general public thinks AI will benefit them personally?
What % of Americans are more concerned than excited about increased AI use?
True or false: Most Americans think AI coverage in the media is overhyped/exaggerated
True or false: Younger people (under 30) are less worried about AI than seniors (65+)
What % of Americans say AI will worsen people’s ability to think creatively?
What % of the public has actually used ChatGPT?