It seems possible there are significant spillovers from therapy, but our current best guess is these would be much smaller than for cash.
It would be helpful if GiveWell could share what their current best guess is. Even if spillovers are 30% for therapy and 100% for cash, assuming the original 12x multiple and 3 other household members, then the multiple would still be 5.7.
It would be helpful if GiveWell could share what their current best guess is. Even if spillovers are 30% for therapy and 100% for cash, assuming the original 12x multiple and 3 other household members, then the multiple would still be 5.7.
Cash = 1 + (1*3) = 4
Psychotherapy = 12 + ((0.3*12)*3) = 12 + 10.8 = 22.8
Hence, therapy still looks quite a bit better even if the spillover effects are small.