Something that I haven’t seen discussed in EA circles is the potential East African Federation. This is the idea of Kenya, Uganda, Tanzania, Rwanda, Burundi, and South Sudan forming a unified country. These are the countries of the East African Community, which to my untrained eye seems to have already made some impactful steps to further economic integration. The Wikipedia page for the Federation says:
In September 2018, a committee was formed to begin the process of drafting a regional constitution,and a draft constitution for the confederation is set to be written by 2021, with implementation of the confederacy by 2023.
I don’t know how likely this is to happen. That being said, if it did happen, it seems to me that this would potentially be a big deal regarding poverty alleviation and economic development in that part of the world. As such, I’d imagine it’s worth some people’s time to forecast whether or not it will happen, and think about ways to influence (a) whether or not it does happen, and (b) the outcome—for example, by providing expertise in constitutional construction. That being said, I don’t follow the global poverty space in EA very much, so I could be missing detailed discussion, or background knowledge that this doesn’t really matter.
Epistemic status: former geopolitical analyst focused on East Africa (for 2 years), but haven’t kept myself much informed in the last 4 years and haven’t read anything about the East Africa Federation.
I would have very little hope in this (estimate: < 1% chance of a federation with all of these countries being formed in the coming 25 years). Many (all?) of these countries have disputes of power along ethnic lines, so the idea of relinquishing power towards a supranational government seems very unlikely to me. E.g., South Sudan can barely form a government for its own country, so the idea of joining a federation seems hopeless.
I would find it more relevant to simply foster economic growth among the East Africa Community, or to work on improving governance within each of these countries (except perhaps Rwanda, which instead can work on securing good governance once President Kagame leaves power).
Happy to further detail my views or discuss this in more depth with anyone interested :)
For reference, the population of the Federation would be ~180 million, less than Nigeria but well over Egypt, Ethiopia, or the Democratic Republic of the Congo, while the largest constituent state, Tanzania, has a population of ~60 million.
Something that I haven’t seen discussed in EA circles is the potential East African Federation. This is the idea of Kenya, Uganda, Tanzania, Rwanda, Burundi, and South Sudan forming a unified country. These are the countries of the East African Community, which to my untrained eye seems to have already made some impactful steps to further economic integration. The Wikipedia page for the Federation says:
I don’t know how likely this is to happen. That being said, if it did happen, it seems to me that this would potentially be a big deal regarding poverty alleviation and economic development in that part of the world. As such, I’d imagine it’s worth some people’s time to forecast whether or not it will happen, and think about ways to influence (a) whether or not it does happen, and (b) the outcome—for example, by providing expertise in constitutional construction. That being said, I don’t follow the global poverty space in EA very much, so I could be missing detailed discussion, or background knowledge that this doesn’t really matter.
Epistemic status: former geopolitical analyst focused on East Africa (for 2 years), but haven’t kept myself much informed in the last 4 years and haven’t read anything about the East Africa Federation.
I would have very little hope in this (estimate: < 1% chance of a federation with all of these countries being formed in the coming 25 years). Many (all?) of these countries have disputes of power along ethnic lines, so the idea of relinquishing power towards a supranational government seems very unlikely to me. E.g., South Sudan can barely form a government for its own country, so the idea of joining a federation seems hopeless.
I would find it more relevant to simply foster economic growth among the East Africa Community, or to work on improving governance within each of these countries (except perhaps Rwanda, which instead can work on securing good governance once President Kagame leaves power).
Happy to further detail my views or discuss this in more depth with anyone interested :)
For reference, the population of the Federation would be ~180 million, less than Nigeria but well over Egypt, Ethiopia, or the Democratic Republic of the Congo, while the largest constituent state, Tanzania, has a population of ~60 million.