The ordering of #7-#9 at least seems debatable to me, because many aspects of (e.g.) natural sciences and medical breakthroughs seem bottlenecked on things other than remote-only labor. Like physical understanding and dexterity (for the scientific labor), and feedback from the physical world (for medical breakthroughs).
(More controversial, probably: On #6, IDK, the abstraction of general “intelligence” seems too coarse to me. LLMs’ (and humans’!) capability profile seems to depend on a lot more domain-specific fiddly things than the intelligence explosion argument suggests. But I’d be interested in evidence otherwise. ETA: Put differently, I basically co-sign this post.)
The ordering of #7-#9 at least seems debatable to me, because many aspects of (e.g.) natural sciences and medical breakthroughs seem bottlenecked on things other than remote-only labor. Like physical understanding and dexterity (for the scientific labor), and feedback from the physical world (for medical breakthroughs).
(More controversial, probably: On #6, IDK, the abstraction of general “intelligence” seems too coarse to me. LLMs’ (and humans’!) capability profile seems to depend on a lot more domain-specific fiddly things than the intelligence explosion argument suggests. But I’d be interested in evidence otherwise. ETA: Put differently, I basically co-sign this post.)