Besides just extrapolating trends in cost of production/prices, I think the main things to track would be feed conversion ratios and the possibility of feeding animals more waste products or otherwise cheaper inputs, since feed is often the main cost of production. Some FCRs are already < 2 and close to 1, e.g. it takes less than 2kg of input to get 1kg of animal product (this could be measured in just weight, calories, protein weight, etc..), e.g. for chickens, some fishes and some insects.
I keep hearing that animal protein comes from the protein in what animals eat (but I think there are some exceptions, at least), so this would put a lower bound of 1 on FCR in protein terms, and there wouldn’t be much further to go for animals close to that.
I think a lower bound of around 1 for weight of feed to weight of animal product also makes sense, maybe especially if you ignore water in and out.
So, I think chicken meat prices could roughly at most halve again, based on these theoretical limits, and it’s probably much harder to keep pushing. Companies are also adopting less efficient breeds to meet welfare standards like the Better Chicken Commitment, since these breeds have really poor welfare due to their accelerated growth.
This might be on Lewis Bollard’s radar, since he has written about the cost of production, prices and more general trends in animal agriculture.
Besides just extrapolating trends in cost of production/prices, I think the main things to track would be feed conversion ratios and the possibility of feeding animals more waste products or otherwise cheaper inputs, since feed is often the main cost of production. Some FCRs are already < 2 and close to 1, e.g. it takes less than 2kg of input to get 1kg of animal product (this could be measured in just weight, calories, protein weight, etc..), e.g. for chickens, some fishes and some insects.
I keep hearing that animal protein comes from the protein in what animals eat (but I think there are some exceptions, at least), so this would put a lower bound of 1 on FCR in protein terms, and there wouldn’t be much further to go for animals close to that.
I think a lower bound of around 1 for weight of feed to weight of animal product also makes sense, maybe especially if you ignore water in and out.
So, I think chicken meat prices could roughly at most halve again, based on these theoretical limits, and it’s probably much harder to keep pushing. Companies are also adopting less efficient breeds to meet welfare standards like the Better Chicken Commitment, since these breeds have really poor welfare due to their accelerated growth.
This might be on Lewis Bollard’s radar, since he has written about the cost of production, prices and more general trends in animal agriculture.