The consequence of this for the “spend now vs spend later” debate is crudely modeled in The optimal timing of spending on AGI safety work, if one expects automated science to directly & predictably precede AGI. (Our model does not model labor, and instead considers [the AI risk community’s] stocks of money, research and influence)
We suppose that after a ‘fire alarm’ funders can spend down their remaining capital, and that the returns to spending on safety research during this period can be higher than spending pre-fire alarm (although our implementation, as Phil Trammell points out, is subtly problematic, and I’ve not computed the results with a corrected approach).
The consequence of this for the “spend now vs spend later” debate is crudely modeled in The optimal timing of spending on AGI safety work, if one expects automated science to directly & predictably precede AGI. (Our model does not model labor, and instead considers [the AI risk community’s] stocks of money, research and influence)
We suppose that after a ‘fire alarm’ funders can spend down their remaining capital, and that the returns to spending on safety research during this period can be higher than spending pre-fire alarm (although our implementation, as Phil Trammell points out, is subtly problematic, and I’ve not computed the results with a corrected approach).