It is stated that, conditional on extinction, we create around zero value. Conditional on using CDT to compute our marginal impact, this is true. But conditional on EDT, this is incorrect.
Conditional on EDT: - 84+% of the resources we would not grab, in case Earth does not create a space-faring civilization (i.e., “extinction”), would still be recovered by other space-faring civilizations. Such that working on reducing extinction has a scale 84+% lower than when assuming CDT. (ref) - Even if we go extinct, working on flourishing or extinction still creates an astronomical amount of value/disvalue through the evidential observation we get about other civilizations (i.e., “correlations”), if you think that correlations with (non-exact-copies) dominate our evidential impact.
I guess this would add lots of complexity without changing much the conclusions, though.
It is stated that, conditional on extinction, we create around zero value. Conditional on using CDT to compute our marginal impact, this is true. But conditional on EDT, this is incorrect.
Conditional on EDT:
- 84+% of the resources we would not grab, in case Earth does not create a space-faring civilization (i.e., “extinction”), would still be recovered by other space-faring civilizations. Such that working on reducing extinction has a scale 84+% lower than when assuming CDT. (ref)
- Even if we go extinct, working on flourishing or extinction still creates an astronomical amount of value/disvalue through the evidential observation we get about other civilizations (i.e., “correlations”), if you think that correlations with (non-exact-copies) dominate our evidential impact.
I guess this would add lots of complexity without changing much the conclusions, though.