but things like “the reference class for rich people in western countries trying to help poor people in Africa is quite bad, so we should start with a skeptical prior here” or “isolationism may not be the good-maximizing approach, but it could be the harm-minimizing approach that we should retreat to when facing cluelessness”
For onlookers I want to point out that this doesn’t read as leftist criticism.
This is very close (almost identical) to what classical conservatives say:
I think we can relieve suffering. But relieving suffering isn’t the only thing I care about. I also care about what I would call flourishing—that people should have the chance to use their skills in ways that are exhilarating and meaningful and they provide dignity.
And some of the challenges I think we face as rich Westerners is that we don’t know very much about those things. We don’t even know how to sustain the markets that sustain our standard of living to imply that we can solve that problem in different cultures and settings seems to be a bit of hubris.
So I don’t mean to be so pessimistic. But it seems to me that some of the value and return from it are going to be grossly overstated. Because we don’t have all the pieces at once.
...
I’m not convinced.… And that’s the hope: that a more scientific approach, a more evidence-based approach I would call it, we could always spend our money, might lead us to be more optimistic. But it might not be true.
...
Now, I’m on your side for sure in saying that it’s a small amount of money toward a big possible improvement and it’s worth spending because that’s your expected value. Which I find very persuasive. It’s just not obvious to me we know a lot about how to do that well.
...
We don’t know what the numbers are. I have no problem with giving people a fishing net, if that’s what they think is best to do with it—there may be some issues there. But, you know—children, etc. I think most people love their children and they are probably more worried about feeding them than keeping them malaria-free, I guess. But I do think there is this complexity issue that relentlessly makes this challenging.
For onlookers I want to point out that this doesn’t read as leftist criticism.
This is very close (almost identical) to what classical conservatives say:
From:
https://www.econtalk.org/peter-singer-on-the-life-you-can-save/
https://www.econtalk.org/william-macaskill-on-effective-altruism-and-doing-good-better/
This seemed to confuse Julia Wise too, and she’s really smart.