Very few. The 2020 EA survey had only 6 people earning 1m+, which doesn’t necessarily equate to donating as much. It’s unlikely, I think, that fewer than 5% of such people took the survey given it had 2,000 responses and I doubt think there are more than 10,000 committed EAs, so I think there are likely under 100 such people.
I think it’s reasonably likely that people earning $1m / year are systematically less inclined to bother with the survey, so I would be cautious about using the community response rate to extrapolate.
(On the other hand, 2000 is 5% of 40000, not 10000)
Also, how many are earning (salaried income), and how many investing (capital gains)? For the latter, they may have enough time to at least do some direct work part time (this is basically what I’m doing), or if they are a start-up founder, exit to direct work (I think this is kind of what Ben West did), and continue to donate if their capital continues to grow (I’m guessing Ben also does this). Although there are also other considerations around haste and use of time. Is it better to aim for $1B in a couple of decades, or spend down ~$10M now? And more time doesn’t linearly translate into more money with investing, it’s often just about noticing the really good opportunities, and that can be somewhat serendipitous.
I’m trying to advocate for “don’t think about this as a theoretical problem and hope to have one formula that works for everyone”.
I’d take the considerations of someone specific and try to solve those. After we’d do that 10 times maybe we can write a more generic formula, but not before, I don’t think. (I can explain why this is my opinion)
How many people are EtG’ing at >$1M/yr? Where are they donating, and are there public records of their donations?
Very few. The 2020 EA survey had only 6 people earning 1m+, which doesn’t necessarily equate to donating as much. It’s unlikely, I think, that fewer than 5% of such people took the survey given it had 2,000 responses and I doubt think there are more than 10,000 committed EAs, so I think there are likely under 100 such people.
https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/nb6tQ5MRRpXydJQFq/ea-survey-2020-series-donation-data
I think it’s reasonably likely that people earning $1m / year are systematically less inclined to bother with the survey, so I would be cautious about using the community response rate to extrapolate.
(On the other hand, 2000 is 5% of 40000, not 10000)
That is why I left quite large margins for error, one of which you note, the other being that those 6 were only earning 1m+, not donating.
Also, how many are earning (salaried income), and how many investing (capital gains)? For the latter, they may have enough time to at least do some direct work part time (this is basically what I’m doing), or if they are a start-up founder, exit to direct work (I think this is kind of what Ben West did), and continue to donate if their capital continues to grow (I’m guessing Ben also does this). Although there are also other considerations around haste and use of time. Is it better to aim for $1B in a couple of decades, or spend down ~$10M now? And more time doesn’t linearly translate into more money with investing, it’s often just about noticing the really good opportunities, and that can be somewhat serendipitous.
I’m trying to advocate for “don’t think about this as a theoretical problem and hope to have one formula that works for everyone”.
I’d take the considerations of someone specific and try to solve those. After we’d do that 10 times maybe we can write a more generic formula, but not before, I don’t think. (I can explain why this is my opinion)