This is just speculation, but maybe this is also why women are less likely to participate in forecasting tournaments? It does take a certain level of confidence / arrogance to see a question about e.g. NATO expansion and think “Yeah, of course I can come up with a prediction on that”.
I think it is very good that FRI is looking to create a diverse team, but I also think that forecasting has a pipeline problem where the participants in tournaments seem to be overwhelmingly male. Maybe they are also the kind of organization that could do some work on figuring out why this is the case and what we can do to solve this?
I don’t think participants in the Good Judgment tournaments that IARPA sponsored back in the day were overwhemingly male. From memory, women were about 30% of the forecaster pool, which isn’t too bad, and really quite good when you compare to other nerdy online things like editing Wikipedia.
“women were about 30% of the forecaster pool” and “80% of research analyst applicants were male” aren’t very far apart, especially since the former is from memory and the latter is a small sample.
(I did a bit of looking trying to find the gender breakdown of Good Judgement Project volunteers, without success)
This is just speculation, but maybe this is also why women are less likely to participate in forecasting tournaments? It does take a certain level of confidence / arrogance to see a question about e.g. NATO expansion and think “Yeah, of course I can come up with a prediction on that”.
I think it is very good that FRI is looking to create a diverse team, but I also think that forecasting has a pipeline problem where the participants in tournaments seem to be overwhelmingly male. Maybe they are also the kind of organization that could do some work on figuring out why this is the case and what we can do to solve this?
I don’t think participants in the Good Judgment tournaments that IARPA sponsored back in the day were overwhemingly male. From memory, women were about 30% of the forecaster pool, which isn’t too bad, and really quite good when you compare to other nerdy online things like editing Wikipedia.
“women were about 30% of the forecaster pool” and “80% of research analyst applicants were male” aren’t very far apart, especially since the former is from memory and the latter is a small sample.
(I did a bit of looking trying to find the gender breakdown of Good Judgement Project volunteers, without success)