Worth flagging that I believe this is based on a (loosely speaking) person-affecting view (mentioned in Joel and Ben’s back-and-forth below). That seems to me to bias the cost-effectiveness of anything that poses a sizable extinction risk dramatically downward.
At the same time, I find both the empirical work and the inside-view thinking here very impressive for a week’s work, and it seems like even those without a person-affecting view can learn a lot from this.
Worth flagging that I believe this is based on a (loosely speaking) person-affecting view (mentioned in Joel and Ben’s back-and-forth below). That seems to me to bias the cost-effectiveness of anything that poses a sizable extinction risk dramatically downward.
At the same time, I find both the empirical work and the inside-view thinking here very impressive for a week’s work, and it seems like even those without a person-affecting view can learn a lot from this.