yeah, I agree that what’s most important is the bigger picture, and regarding that, I totally agree with your conclusions!
(though, coming just after listening to Ian Morris’s podcast on his history book (here: https://80000hours.org/podcast/episodes/ian-morris-big-picture-history/) I just got the thought that politics may dictate a quantification also for the scenaria for nuclear conflict as politically speaking, use of a nuclear weapon by say Russia would be qualitatively different to use by say Pakistan because of (for lack of better words) there’s a ‘hierarchy’ of states judged on their power on the world stage. Something which I think it would be hard for a model to capture. But I may be wrong and you have covered this, and as I said before, I do agree with your conclusions and estimates
yeah, I agree that what’s most important is the bigger picture, and regarding that, I totally agree with your conclusions!
(though, coming just after listening to Ian Morris’s podcast on his history book (here: https://80000hours.org/podcast/episodes/ian-morris-big-picture-history/) I just got the thought that politics may dictate a quantification also for the scenaria for nuclear conflict as politically speaking, use of a nuclear weapon by say Russia would be qualitatively different to use by say Pakistan because of (for lack of better words) there’s a ‘hierarchy’ of states judged on their power on the world stage. Something which I think it would be hard for a model to capture. But I may be wrong and you have covered this, and as I said before, I do agree with your conclusions and estimates